8. October 2022
The Power of Well Calibrated Confidence
In a transformational situation, it’s crucial to find the right level of confidence about what an organization can achieve and the likelihood of results. Overconfidence can lead to serious problems, as can a lack of confidence. I like Don More’s recent book “Perfect Confidence” and took away some important advice on how to calibrate our confidence and challenge our assumptions:
First, it’s important to think probabilistically about the uncertainties inherent in the future. We can’t predict the future, but we can look at the distribution of possible outcomes and try to predict the probability of each of those outcomes.
Second, “Thinking in Bets”, ask yourself if you would be willing to place bets on your predictions, which leads to the question of why you might be wrong.
Third, try to prove not only your hypothesis, as you will then be biased, but also the opposite.
Fourth, “Good managers are right a lot. People who are right a lot, change their mind a lot” – Jeff Besos. Always be open to challenging your assumptions based on new evidence.
In the comments, I’ll leave you a link to a recent interview with Don Moore.